Greater Austin Real Estate: 2025 Recap & What to Expect in 2026

Austin didn’t boom or bust in 2025—it normalized. More inventory returned, prices mostly held steady, and rate relief late in the year nudged buyers back off the sidelines. If you’re planning a move in 2026, here’s what last year tells us—and how to play the next one.

2025 at a glance (Greater Austin / Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos MSA)

• Median price hovered near $430,000 by November, essentially flat year over year (-1.1%). Months of inventory rose to 6.3, a more balanced market than we’ve seen since the pandemic years.

• City of Austin proper posted a $565,000 median in November with 4.9 months of inventory—still pricier than the broader metro but moving toward balance.

• Year-to-date (single-family): 26,455 closings (-5% YoY), median $438,532 (-1% YoY), and 73 days on market (9 days slower than 2024).

County snapshots (Nov 2025)

• Travis County: Median $505,000; 5.2 months of inventory.

• Williamson County: Median $415,000; 4.5 months of inventory.

• Hays County: Median $390,000; 4.4 months of inventory.

What this means: 2025 was the year Austin rebalanced. Sellers had to price to the market; buyers finally had options beyond “the one.” That’s healthier for everyone.

The interest-rate + inflation backdrop (why late 2025 felt better)

• Mortgage rates eased into the low 6s to start January 2026 (30-yr fixed 6.16% for the week of Jan 8).

• Inflation (headline CPI-U) cooled to ~2.7% YoY in December 2025, a constructive sign for further rate stability.

What to expect in 2026 (my playbook for Greater Austin)

Unlock MLS’ year-ahead outlook points to a steady, activity-rich market—not a spike. Their current projection range for 2026: 30,000–32,000 closed sales, 10,000–12,000 active listings, ~5+ months of inventory, and a median price around $410,000–$425,000. Translation: a busy, balanced year if rates stay in the 6s.

Buyer takeaways

1. Window of leverage: Inventory above 5 months means more negotiating room on price, repairs, and closing costs—especially on homes 30+ days on market.

2. Rate strategy: With rates near the low-6s, structure your offer with a seller credit you can apply to a temp buydown or permanent point if needed; don’t overpay just to “buy the rate.”

3. New construction is your friend: Builders are still sitting on supply—ask for incentives, upgrades, and closing-cost help. (Area inventory data supports room to deal.)

Seller takeaways

1. Price to the 90-day reality, not 2022 nostalgia. Median values are flat-to-down a hair YoY; overpricing = stale listing + price cuts.

2. Prep matters: In a normalized market, condition + presentation win. Light updates and pre-inspection can protect your net more than chasing a higher list price.

3. Expect appraisal discipline: More comps, longer DOM—appraisers are strict again. Strong data and strategic concessions keep deals together.

Micro-markets to watch in 2026

• Pflugerville/Hutto/Round Rock (Williamson Co.): Value-driven suburbs with ~4.5 months of inventory—solid options for move-up buyers priced out of central Austin.

• South Hays corridor (Kyle/Buda/San Marcos): Entry-level new-build pipeline + improving commute options; watch builder incentives.

• Central/Close-in Austin: Still premium pricing (November medians show the gap), but balanced inventory gives buyers more choice without bidding wars every weekend.

My forecast (plain-English)

• Volume: Up from 2025 as rates stabilize and spring listings hit—think healthy, not hyper.

• Prices: Sideways to mildly lower early, then firming into summer; metro $410k–$425k feels like the center lane unless rates fall sharply.

• Negotiation: Still present. Buyers retain some leverage through at least Q2 while inventory stays above 5 months.

Thinking about a 2026 move?

Whether you’re upsizing in Pflugerville, hunting new construction in Hutto/Kyle, or selling in central Austin, I’ll tailor a plan that fits your budget, timing, and risk tolerance—without the hype.

Have questions? Let’s build your custom game plan today —no obligation.

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Data sources: Unlock MLS Central Texas Housing Reports (latest monthly + year-to-date), Freddie Mac PMMS weekly rate survey, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release.